E-MAIL MARTIN   PRINT   2008 COLUMNS   ARCHIVES   SEARCH ARCHIVES OLYMPICS BEGIN! TOURISTS STAY HOME! By Martin B. Deutsch August 7, 2008 -- Let the Games Begin! The Summer Olympics start tomorrow, on a date that Chinese people find numerically fortuitous: 8-8-08. The arrival of this quadrennial event brings to mind a long-held position, one I first expressed in anticipation of the Olympic Games in Rome in 1960. I spent two weeks preparing articles in Italy before the Games and came to the conclusion that the Olympic Games would not be a major tourist attraction. And they weren't. Rome built lavishly--and the tourists didn't come. Over the years, I've come to the same unpopular conclusion as the Summer Olympics were held in Munich, Moscow, Montreal, Los Angeles and Athens, to name just a few. Experience and statistics showed that the great appeal of this intense, two-week activity extended to families and friends of the athletes, sports enthusiasts and locals who can afford the price for event tickets. Tourists just didn't come in the numbers that the sponsors of the Games predicted. After the most recent Games in Athens, I noted that the Greeks had amassed a loss of $10 billion while hosting this competition. At least a part of that came from the lack of tourists. I heard just the other day that the actual figure is closer to $15 billion. (History has it that the Greeks have a word for everything; in this case, I'd say it was "Ouch!") This huge sum is doubly painful when you consider that the Olympics were introduced in Ancient Greece, probably for next to nothing, as a means of promoting less-warlike relationships between the Greek states. A laudable ambition, to be sure, but the modern Olympics have mostly failed there, too. We've only got to take a look at some of the issues in play in China to confirm one more time just how political and politicized the Olympics have become.     · There is the much-publicized air pollution in Beijing, reflecting China's headlong rush into the latest Industrial Revolution. It's a blight that Beijing's city fathers have been trying to reduce, if not eradicate, in time for August 8. It's anybody's guess whether they will be successful, but I've heard talk among the athletes about wearing masks to mitigate the problem.     · There's the chronic dilemma of Tibet, with more than 100 deaths in that occupied Himalayan land due to sporadic uprisings by the monks who follow the Dalai Lama, their exiled spiritual leader.     · There have been all manner of dustups over Internet access, the worldwide Torch relay, the ability of news organizations to film and broadcast from Tiananmen Square and, of course, the ongoing controversy surrounding which, and how many, world leaders may "boycott" the Games by skipping tomorrow's opening ceremonies.     · This week's terrorist attack in Kashgar killed 16 police officers and shed new light on the separatist ambitions of Xinjiang, China's westernmost province and a majority Muslim region. All of those have taken their toll on tourism. According to statistics released by the Chinese authorities, about 420,000 tourists went to Beijing last August. This year, even with the Games, the number is only expected to rise by about 10 percent. Which means a lot of the 13,000 new hotel rooms opened in time for the Olympics will be empty. At least that many more rooms are under construction, too, and Beijing shows all the signs of being a city with a glut of hotels. Does it really need the 50 five-star hotels that are now scattered around town? Despite the proven inability of the Olympics Games to generate tourism, the old clichés never go away. When New York bid for the 2012 Summer Games, an ugly battle was fought on two related fronts. One involved a strong-arm effort by Mayor Michael Bloomberg and his City Hall confederates to build a football stadium on the city's Far West Side. It included a mind-boggling giveaway of $1.3 billion of taxpayer funds to the billionaire owner of the New York Jets. The city's spin doctors argued that the stadium was needed to ensure a successful bid for the Olympics, which they claimed would bring a financial bonanza to New York. Fortunately, this idiotic scheme fell short and the 2012 Games were awarded to London. The British capital is now awash in Olympics-related scandals and cost overruns and the budget has spiraled to a mind-boggling $20 billion. Conversely, I understand China's rationale for investing billions to host the Olympics. They are using it to showcase the progress that this communist-turned-capitalist society has achieved in recent decades. Its social problems notwithstanding, China's growth is one hell of a story. But why a New York or a London would want to invest this kind of money is beyond me. And keep in mind that New York is attracting a record number of tourists from around the world without the Olympics, an influx fueled by the deflated dollar and the multifaceted attractions that Gotham currently offers. The 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles, of course, were behind the metaphoric eight ball from the outset. The United States had boycotted the 1980 Games in Moscow to protest the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Soviet bloc responded in kind against the Los Angeles Olympics. Prior to the Los Angeles Games, I interviewed Peter V. Ueberroth, in charge of the extravaganza to come. He assured me that there would be no widespread retaliation in light of our failure to show up in Moscow. As it happened, the Russians did not come, the Cubans did not come, the East Europeans did not come--and the tourists did not come. I also wrote a column predicting that pre-Olympics moves to gouge visitors would go unrewarded. After all, you can't overcharge people who don't come. I spent the first week of the Games in Los Angeles with my son, who was 18 at the time. I had never seen the highways so clear and navigable. You could also walk into any restaurant and find a table. Renting a car was a snap, too. The Games themselves were profitable, as Ueberroth had promised, but the tourists never came. Montreal in 1976 also had its share of challenges, and it is not impossible that this wonderful French Canadian City is still paying off the debt incurred to sponsor the game. As for Rome in 1960, I do not recollect the relevant statistics, but I know that the ambitious projections by the Italians were not met. And after all my groundwork, even I didn't make it back to Rome for the Games. Finally, one other Olympic oddity worth noting: The Games may not be good for the long-term survival of repressive regimes. I recently heard a television pundit predict that this Chinese government would fall within eight or nine years of hosting the Beijing Games. His evidence? The Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet block began disintegrating in 1989, nine years after the Moscow Games. And Hitler's Thousand Year Reich fell in 1945, nine years after the 1936 Olympics in Berlin. Curious, but enticing, speculation. I wish China the best of luck with the Games, but I wonder what percentage of those in attendance will be genuinely identifiable tourists? I also wonder how much red ink the Red Chinese will accumulate.

ABOUT MARTIN B. DEUTSCH Martin B. Deutsch created Frequent Flyer magazine in 1980 and was editor-in-chief and publisher for 15 years. He also wrote a column called "Up Front" for Frequent Flyer during those years. In a 50-year career, he created, published and edited dozens of other travel publications. Deutsch is based in New York. THE FINE PRINT Joe Brancatelli makes this space available to Martin B. Deutsch in the spirit of free speech and to encourage editorial diversity and the wider discussion of important travel issues. All of the opinions and material in this column are the sole property of Mr. Deutsch. This column may not be reproduced in any form without the permission of Mr. Deutsch. This column is Copyright © 2008 by Martin B. Deutsch. JoeSentMe.com is Copyright © 2008 by Joe Brancatelli. All rights reserved.